Month by month
Bali in October
The last month with dry-season odds, and it spends them as it goes: the second fortnight is about 34% wetter a day than the first.
October is the last of the dry season, and it does not last the month. Its first fortnight averages 1.93mm of rain a day and its second 2.58mm.
The monthly figure, 68mm, hides that entirely. October still came in under 100mm in 23 of the last thirty years, so the dry-season odds are real, but they are not spread evenly: they are best at the start and worst at the end. That makes early October one of the quietest good fortnights in the Bali calendar and late October the first genuine gamble of the wet season.
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What October actually measures
On the chart October is the last low bar before the climb. Most of the climb starts inside it.
Rainfall
68 mm
On average. An independent check at the same point puts it at 57mm.
Across the month
1.93 → 2.58 mm
Per day, first fortnight against second. Only November rises more steeply.
Dry years
23 of 30
Under 100mm. November, the month after, manages 10.
The monthly average has two independent sources behind it and they agree to within three per cent. The fortnight split, the dry-year count and the year-to-year extremes come from the reanalysis alone. One number is deliberately not on this page: October's wettest year was 221mm and its driest 5mm, which is a ratio of more than forty to one and the widest of the twelve, but that figure is carried almost entirely by a single freak year and describes it rather than the month. As on the other month pages there is no count of rainy days and no separate figure by region.
The month that runs out
Averaged over thirty years, October's second fortnight takes about 34 per cent more rain a day than its first. That is the second-largest such rise in the Bali year, behind only November, and the two of them are consecutive for the obvious reason: this is the monsoon arriving, and it does not wait for the first of the month.
Put next to the months either side, the shape is clear. Early October, at 1.93mm a day, is still behaving like the back half of September, which runs at 1.67mm. Late October, at 2.58mm, has left that behind. The month does not sit between two seasons so much as contain the boundary.
The practical consequence is that an October booking is really two different bookings and the calendar does not warn you which one you are making. Two weeks apart, at the same price, in the same empty island, one of them is a dry-season trip and the other is a wet-season trip that has not committed yet.
Which fortnight to take, in all three turning months
Three months in the Bali year sit on a moving season rather than inside one: April, October and November. In each of them the two halves of the month differ more than the month differs from its neighbours, and in each of them one half is clearly the better bet.
On the thirty-year record, take late April, early October, early November. Those are the drier halves, and no monthly average will tell you about any of them.
April improves through the month because the monsoon is retreating; October and November deteriorate because it is returning. That is one measurement read three times, and it is the single most useful thing this site has found about choosing dates in the shoulder seasons, because everybody else is comparing monthly averages that differ by less than the halves inside them.
Where to base yourself in October
Early in the month, base as you would in September: everything is open, the west coast is still working, and the highlands around Munduk and Kintamani still hold reasonable odds on a view.
Later in the month, base as you would in November: toward the coast, and toward Sanur in particular, where the reef keeps the water swimmable when the west coast turns. That is not a different recommendation so much as the same one applied to a month that changes underneath it.
All twelve bases, with what the airport transfer costs to each, are on our where to stay in Bali page.
What October is good for
The last of the reliable outdoor plans, and the quiet to do them in. A Mount Batur sunrise, a day on Nusa Penida without nursing the boat crossing, a split stay pairing the coast with the mountains: all of these still work in early October and all of them get harder from here until April. The island is also emptier than it has been since May.
The landscape starts to come back too. Five months of drying leave the terraces and waterfalls at their thinnest in August and September, and the first proper rain begins reversing that inside October. It will not look like January yet, but it is on the way back.
For how October sits against the other eleven on crowds as well as rain, see when to visit, and our weather guide for the pattern across the year.
Every month of the Bali year, with its measured rainfall and what the average hides, is on Bali month by month.
Bali in October: common questions
What is the weather like in Bali in October?+
October averages 68mm in the southern lowlands and came in under 100mm in 23 of the last thirty years, so the dry-season odds still hold. They do not hold evenly across the month: the first fortnight averages 1.93mm of rain a day and the second 2.58mm, a rise of about 34 per cent. Daytime highs are 31.1C.
Is October a good time to visit Bali?+
The first half is, and it is one of the quietest good fortnights in the calendar. The second half is where the wet season starts arriving, and the odds move against you inside the month. October is the last chance at dry-season weather at shoulder prices, but it is a chance that expires partway through.
Is it better to visit Bali in early or late October?+
Early, and it is not close. The first fortnight averages 1.93mm of rain a day, the second 2.58mm. Early October is still behaving like September, which averages 1.67mm a day in its own second half. Late October is on its way to November. If your dates can move within the month, move them earlier.
Has the rainy season started in Bali in October?+
Usually not, but it starts inside the month more often than not. 23 of the last thirty Octobers came in under 100mm, against 10 of thirty for November, so October is still on the dry side of the divide while November is not. The transition happens somewhere in between, and the date it happens moves by weeks from year to year.
How hot is Bali in October?+
About 31.1C by day and 24.4C at night, near the top of a range that spans barely two and a half degrees across the whole year. Bali's temperature is not what the month choice buys you. Rain is, and October's changes inside the month as well as between years.
Can you still surf the Bukit in October?+
Early in the month, usually. October is the tail of the dry-season pattern, so the southeast trades that groom the west-coast reefs are weakening and the switch to the east coast is beginning. An early-October surf trip can still find Uluwatu and Padang Padang working; a late-October one is more likely to be looking at Keramas.
Are the boats to Nusa Penida reliable in October?+
Early in the month, yes. The fast boats from Sanur are cancelled when the sea is rough, and rough days start reappearing as the month goes on. Treat an early-October island day as safe to schedule and a late-October one as something to keep flexible.